NASA Panel Estimates 22 Starship Flights Needed for Lunar Landing

NASA's plans for a human return to the Moon rely on a specific logistical calculation involving SpaceX's Starship rocket, a figure the agency has historically been reluctant to specify. That reluctance appears to have ended, with a new estimate now placing the required number of launches at 22. This figure would represent a substantial increase over previous projections for the Artemis Program.

The estimate was presented during a meeting of the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, where member Charlie Precourt, a former astronaut, discussed risks associated with the lunar landing initiative. The calculation refers to the number of Starship launches necessary to fully fuel a lunar lander in low-Earth orbit, enabling it to travel to the Moon, land, and return to lunar orbit.

The number of required launches has been a subject of shifting estimates for several years. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan, who was then director of NASA's Human Landing System program, said she was 'reluctant to say' the exact figure. She later provided a range of 'high single digits to the low double digits,' while other officials have previously cited figures in the 'high teens.' The ongoing hope has been that improvements in Starship's lift capacity would reduce the number of tanker flights needed.

However, some NASA officials are now expressing concerns that these improvements may not be materializing quickly enough to support a meaningful role for Starship in returning humans to the Moon within the current decade. The process for fueling the lander involves launching a 'depot' Starship, followed by numerous 'tanker' Starships to transfer liquid oxygen and methane propellant for the lunar journey.

The timeline for this development is as follows: In 2023, NASA officials were hesitant to provide a specific number for Starship launches, offering only broad ranges. By October 22, 2026, during a quarterly meeting of the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, a concrete estimate of 22 launches was articulated by panel member Charlie Precourt while discussing risks associated with the Artemis Program.

This latest figure now stands as the current projection for the number of flights required to support the planned lunar landing mission. The agency's next steps will involve addressing the concerns raised by officials regarding the pace of development for SpaceX's Starship rocket and its capacity to meet the requirements of the Artemis Program this decade.